A new, open-access database compiles and assesses the most important estimates of the number of irregular migrants in Europe and the USA. Developed under the leadership of the University of Oxford and co-designed by the University for Continuing Education Krems and Maastricht University, the database offers processed data on twelve European countries and the USA. The database was developed as part of the research project “Measuring Irregular Migration and Related Policies” (MIrreM), which is led by the University of Krems and involves 18 institutions. The project team has published further findings in the report “The Irregular Migrant Population of Europe”.
Estimating the number of irregular migrants is difficult because many members of this group avoid disclosing personal information in surveys and other data collections for fear of legal repercussions. As a result, there is a lack of comprehensive statistical data that would normally make it possible to calculate the size and composition of population groups. Estimates on this topic are therefore always uncertain and subject to large margins of error. Compared to earlier scientific estimates, such as those of the EU-funded research project “Clandestino” (2008) and the Pew Research Centre (2019), the new database now provides updated and more precise information on the group of irregular migrants in Europe and the USA and on its development in recent years.
Project coordinator Professor Albert Kraler from the Centre for Migration and Globalisation Research at the University for Continuing Education Krems emphasizes: “Numbers don't speak for themselves. The MIrreM database not only compiles various current estimates, but also evaluates their quality and highlights distortions. This makes it possible to get a clearer picture of the number of irregular migrants.”
The main results of the analysis
Between 2016 and 2023, an estimated 2.6 to 3.2 million irregular migrants were living in the twelve European countries covered by the MIrreM project (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, United Kingdom). In their entirety, the absolute number of irregular migrants and their share of the total population in the European countries examined has not changed significantly since 2008. This is in contrast to the widely held assumption in public debate that irregular immigration is continuously increasing.
According to the estimates, the proportion of irregular migrants in the total population of these European countries is less than 1 percent. The proportion of the population of third-country nationals is between eight and ten percent. These are migrants who were born in countries outside the Schengen area, or, in the case of Ireland and the United Kingdom, those who were born outside the “Common Travel Area”. This result is largely consistent with those of the “Clandestino” research project mentioned above.
No increase in the number of irregular migrants?
In 2008, the Clandestino project estimated the number of irregular migrants in these twelve countries at between 1.8 and 3.8 million. However, the MIrreM research team has now arrived at a more precise estimate for 2008, assuming a lower limit of 2.58 million and an upper limit of 3.34 million irregular migrants. This still leaves a range. It is therefore not possible to definitively answer the question of whether the number of irregular migrants has changed since 2008, because the changes are within the range.
According to estimates, the United States has the largest group of irregular migrants: both in absolute numbers (an estimate in the database, which the project team considers to be of high quality, assumes 11.1 to 11.6 million) and in terms of the share of the total population and the population born abroad. The smallest group in the countries surveyed lives in Finland (again, with regard to the absolute number and the proportion of the total population and the population born abroad).
Developments since 2008
Compared to the Clandestino estimates from 2008, the research conducted by MIrreM shows that since then, the number of irregular migrants and their share of the population has increased in three countries – Austria, Germany and Spain. In five countries, the estimated number of irregular migrants has remained the same: Belgium, France, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States. The numbers decreased in Finland, Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands and Poland.
The research team recommends that long-term, cross-national surveys on irregular migration in Europe be conducted in order to draw more reliable conclusions. To this end, the researchers are currently developing and testing new methodological approaches that will facilitate the creation of regular and reliable estimates of irregular migration.
The MIrreM project is funded by the European Union. It is co-financed by the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and the Canadian Excellence Research Chair in Migration and Integration (TMU).
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