The Temporal Toll: How 'Secondary Migration Orientation' and Permanent Temporariness Shape the Social Connections and Well-being of Urban Refugees in Addis Ababa

Uncertainty over the present and future plays a central role in the daily lives of refugees globally. In the proposed study, I define this state of “permanent temporariness” as: a durable macro-structural condition where refugees experience prolonged uncertainty in countries of first asylum without secure legal, social, or temporal horizons for settlement or onward movement. This condition poses serious challenges by normalizing uncertainty, thereby affecting refugees’ well-being and thwarting efforts towards social cohesion. The condition of permanent temporariness and its effects on social connections and psychosocial well-being, while salient in urban settings, remain underexplored. The proposed PhD study explores the lived experience of urban refugees living in a state of permanent temporariness. The project zooms in on the effects of the structural condition of permanent temporariness on meso and micro level outcomes such as social connections and wellbeing The central innovation of the study lies in how Secondary Migration Orientation, defined as refugees sustained future-oriented aspiration for onward migration amidst the delay of durable solutions, is positioned as a key mediator connecting the policy induced condition of permanent temporariness to social and psychosocial outcomes. The study focuses on Eritrean and Somali urban refugees in Addis Ababa who have settled in the city through different urban settlement pathways. Addis Ababa presents a salient context for the study, as despite hosting a large number of refugees, and formal rights for refugees having been expanded, permanent solutions remain elusive. The study will employ a mixed-methods research design to assess the relationships among permanent temporariness, secondary migration orientation, social connections, and psychosocial well-being. By advancing a temporally grounded conceptual framework, the study generates policy and program-relevant insight on urban refugees in Ethiopia and beyond.