A research team of the Department for Migration and Globalization at Danube University Krems will investigate future scenarios likely to occur within European migration together with six project partners starting in February 2020. Statistical projections based on quantitative data sets shall calculate potential future scenarios of European migration in order to support political decision-makers.

The EU-funded project "Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy (QuantMig)" examines European migration scenarios to be a source for political decision-makers within migration policy and planning. Future prognoses derived from quantitative data on migration flows in countries of origin, destination and transit in Europe is the three-year research project’s focus. "In the course of the movement of refugees since 2015, influencing factors of European migration drew the attention of political interest", explains Prof. Dr. Mathias Czaika, head of the Department for Migration and Globalization at Danube University Krems. Mobility of third-country nationals and the decision-making of migrants is to be scrutinized in particular.


Projection of future scenario

"QuantMig" is putting its efforts into building a comprehensive data set enlisting the factors that fuel European migration. Prospective future scenarios shall be sketched out using various methodological approaches and with the help of a toolkit create statistical projections, in which deviations from trends are likely and therefore taken into account. "This includes, for example, the question of how a second Arab spring might affect migration to Europe," says Czaika. The researcher evaluate these quantitative data sets’ result to forecast ultimately migration of the near future. "Since many complex factors interact here, these forecasts are intended to improve understanding of European migration and provide political actors with a basis for decision-making," the migration scientist describes. This determines to close a major research gap within this area.


European Consortium

A consortium of leading European institutions with strong demographic and migration competences carries out the project. "We permanently communicate with important stakeholders" and the conception of "directly applicable instruments to support political measures" are important in the course of the project, explains Czaika. The consortium is coordinated by the University of Southampton (UK).


Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy (QuantMig)

Funding: European Commission

Duration: 2020 - 2023

Coordinator: University Southampton (UK)

Project lead Danube University: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Mathias Czaika, Head of the Department for Migration and Globalization


Danube University Krems (AUT)

International Institute for applied system analysis IIASA (AUT)

Max-Planck Gesellschaft (D)

Interdisciplinary Demography Institute Netherlands (NL)

Peace Research Institute Oslo

University of Oslo (NOR)

University of Southampton (UK)

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