Sustainable Phosphorus Supply

Roland Scholz and Gerald Steiner from the Department for Knowledge and Communication Management at the University for Continuing Education Krems, together with colleagues, have published a study in the journal “Resources, Conservation and Recycling” on improving resource efficiency in the use of phosphorus and securing phosphorus supplies in the medium and long term. The availability of phosphorus is essential for food production. Looming phosphorus shortages, high losses along the supply chain and low efficiency of use call for sustainable management of this important raw material. However, the results of the study provide a positive outlook for the future. The study was co-funded by the Global Phosphorus Institute, Ben Guerier in Morocco.

Global demand for phosphorus, an essential nutrient for food production, will increase by about 40% by 2060. This increase will be driven by global population growth and increasing affluence combined with changing dietary habits. Despite the critical role of phosphorus, its Total Utilization Efficiency (TUE) is very low. It is only 5-10%, which means that only a fraction of the available phosphorus can actually be used in agricultural production. The majority is lost along the production and supply chain, for example through inefficient agricultural practices or as waste.

Global availability of phosphorus

The availability of phosphate rock, the main source of mineral phosphorus, is estimated at more than 1,000 years. Mining is economically viable as the price of phosphate rock remains low compared to other costs such as energy. As market prices rise, the mining of deposits with a lower phosphorus content or deeper deposits will also become economically attractive.

Although this long-term availability may seem reassuring, the pressure for sustainable use remains high. The scarcity of resources and the potential environmental impact of unchecked consumption require targeted measures. The alarmingly low overall utilization efficiency of phosphorus in the food chain can be improved primarily by reducing losses (approx. 30%) in primary mineral phosphorus extraction and increasing the recycling of organic phosphorus. This requires innovative technologies. This would significantly extend the lifespan of phosphorus reserves, which are (bio)essential for feeding the world, i.e. they cannot be replaced by other minerals. This would not only increase the long-term security of supply, but also reduce the ecological footprint of food production.

Improved resource use and future prospects

In the medium term, the demand for phosphorus for food production is expected to increase by about 40 % by 2060. Based on current knowledge, there are no concerns regarding the short and long-term security of supply. As the mineral, economically recoverable phosphorus reserves are finite, humanity can only secure the supply of phosphorus by improving the use of resources through recycling, particularly of organic waste such as animal bones or agricultural residues. The potential for recycling is high worldwide. However, this potential has not yet been fully exploited. A better understanding and systematic development of these sources could reduce the dependence on mineral sources of phosphorus and at the same time reduce environmental pollution. Members of the Transdisciplinary Laboratory Sustainable Mineral Resources (SMR Td-Lab) at the University for Continuing Education Krems have written a comprehensive “Phosphorus Fact Book”. This work will be published by Springer in early 2025. The “Fact Book” should help to fill these knowledge gaps. A major resource policy problem is that there is currently no global institution that tracks the phosphorus deposits essential for global nutrition, models cost-resource relationships, and monitors the availability of phosphorus for a sustainable supply.

“We are pleased to announce the results of this study, which provides a positive outlook for the future of phosphorus supply. Contrary to earlier fears, the research results indicate that humanity is well positioned to have access to sufficient phosphate for at least a thousand years,” said the study authors Prof. em. Dr. Roland W. Scholz and Prof. Dr. Gerald Steiner in their concluding remarks.